NYC crime rates by year/commissioner

NYC mayor-elect Bill de Blasio is expected to name William J. Bratton to lead the NYPD. Bratton has been commissioner before (1994-1996) so I was curious to see the crime rates during his tenure, which was within the period that saw an impressive drop (1990-2010). Here is the graph of violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants for NYC NY state for year 1965-2012 (divided by commissioner). Will Bratton be able to continue the trend? The graph suggests to me that they have hit a "floor" (1960s levels!).

nycrimes

Data is here.

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  • Steven

    The declining clime results were a result of policies passed by the previous Mayor, not due to any amazing levels of competence in the NYPD. The crime rates will almost certainly rise under the new Mayor, given that so far he seems to have a very soft approach to crime and has caved in over key policies like stop-and-frisk, which is almost certainly going to increase the crime rate. So yeah, expect that graph to rise sharply.

  • Mirko Spinoza

    Why the weird y axis?

  • channelclemente

    Finally, the lead contamination worked it's way through the population.

  • channelclemente

    I'd love to se a comparison of lead and crime statistics along the lines of the apparent relationship suggested in this article from earlier this year.

    http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline

  • Corey

    Here's some relevant commentary:

    An hypothesis about the elevated crime rates for the era from the 60s to the end of the 80s: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline

    The author of the previous piece on Bill Bratton: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/12/bill-bratton-great-choice-head-new-yorks-police-force

  • channelclemente

    It would be interesting to compare this distribution/data to that of lead in the environment. I read an article a few months ago that related the two, and a multi year lag to see the decline in crime.

  • Justin Elszasz

    The data that you've used and cited are for New York State, not New York City.

  • Justin Elszasz

    It appears the data you've used are for New York State, not City.