Simply Statistics A statistics blog by Rafa Irizarry, Roger Peng, and Jeff Leek

User Experience and Value in Products - What Regression and Surrogate Variables can Teach Us

Over the past year, there have been a number of recurring topics in my global news feed that have a shared theme to them. Some examples of these topics are:

  • Fake news: Before and after the election in 2016, Facebook (or Facebook’s Trending News algorithm) was accused of promoting news stories that turned out to be completely false, promoted by dubious news sources in FYROM and elsewhere.
  • Theranos: This diagnostic testing company promised to revolutionize the blood testing business and prevent disease for all by making blood testing simple and painless. This way people would not be afraid to get blood tests and would do them more often, presumably catching diseases while they were in the very early stages. Theranos lobbied to allow patients order their own blood tests so that they wouldn’t need a doctor’s order.
  • Homeopathy: This a so-called alternative medical system developed in the late 18th century based on notions such as “like cures like” and “law of minimum dose.
  • Online education: New companies like Coursera and Udacity promised to revolutionize education by making it accessible to a broader audience than conventional universities were able.

What exactly do these things have in common?

First, consumers love them. Fake news played to people’s biases by confirming to them, from a seemingly trustworthy source, what they always “knew to be true”. The fact that the stories weren’t actually true was irrelevant given that users enjoyed the experience of seeing what they agreed with. Perhaps the best explanation of the entire Facebook fake news issue was from Kim-Mai Cutler:

Theranos promised to revolutionize blood testing and change the user experience behind the whole industry. Indeed the company had some fans (particularly amongst its investor base). However, after investigations by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the FDA, and an independent laboratory, it was found that Theranos’s blood testing machine was wildly inconsistent and variable, leading to Theranos ultimately retracting all of its blood test results and cutting half its workforce.

Homeopathy is not company specific, but is touted by many as an “alternative” treatment for many diseases, with many claiming that it “works for them”. However, the NIH states quite clearly on its web site that “There is little evidence to support homeopathy as an effective treatment for any specific condition.”

Finally, companies like Coursera and Udacity in the education space have indeed produced products that people like, but in some instances have hit bumps in the road. Udacity conducted a brief experiment/program with San Jose State University that failed due to the large differences between the population that took online courses and the one that took them in person. Coursera has massive offerings from major universities (including my own) but has run into continuing challenges with drop out and questions over whether the courses offered are suitable for job placement.

User Experience and Value

In each of these four examples there is a consumer product that people love, often because they provide a great user experience. Take the fake news example–people love to read headlines from “trusted” news sources that agree with what they believe. With Theranos, people love to take a blood test that is not painful (maybe “love” is the wrong word here). With many consumer products companies, it is the user experience that defines the value of a product. Often when describing the user experience, you are simultaneously describing the value of the product.

Take for example Uber. With Uber, you open an app on your phone, click a button to order a car, watch the car approach you on your phone with an estimate of how long you will be waiting, get in the car and go to your destination, and get out without having to deal with paying. If someone were to ask me “What’s the value of Uber?” I would probably just repeat the description in the previous sentence. Isn’t it obvious that it’s better than the usual taxi experience? The same could be said for many companies that have recently come up: Airbnb, Amazon, Apple, Google. With many of the products from these companies, the description of the user experience is a description of its value.

Disruption Through User Experience

In the example of Uber (and Airbnb, and Amazon, etc.) you could depict the relationship between the product, the user experience, and the value as such:

Any changes that you can make to the product to improve the user experience will then improve the value that the product offers. Another way to say it is that the user experience serves as a surrogate outcome for the value. We can influence the UX and know that we are improving value. Furthermore, any measurements that we take on the UX (surveys, focus groups, app data) will serve as direct observations on the value provided to customers.

New companies in these kinds of consumer product spaces can disrupt the incumbents by providing a much better user experience. When incumbents have gotten fat and lazy, there is often a sizable segment of the customer base that feels underserved. That’s when new companies can swoop in to specifically serve that segment, often with a “worse” product overall (as in fewer features) and usually much cheaper. The Internet has made the “swooping in” much easier by dramatically reducing transaction and distribution costs. Once the new company has a foothold, they can gradually work their way up the ladder of customer segments to take over the market. It’s classic disruption theory a la Clayton Christensen.

When Value Defines the User Experience and Product

There has been much talk of applying the classic disruption model to every space imaginable, but I contend that not all product spaces are the same. In particular, the four examples I described in the beginning of this post cover some of those different areas:

  • Medicine (Theranos, homeopathy)
  • News (Facebook/fake news)
  • Education (Coursera/Udacity)

One thing you’ll notice about these areas, particularly with medicine and education, is that they are all heavily regulated. The reason is because we as a community have decided that there is a minimum level of value that is required to be provided by entities in this space. That is, the value that a product offers is defined first, before the product can come to market. Therefore, the value of the product actually constrains the space of products that can be produced. We can depict this relationship as such:

In classic regression modeling language, the value of a product must be “adjusted for” before examining the relationship between the product and the user experience. Naturally, as in any regression problem, when you adjust for a variable that is related to the product and the user experience, you reduce the overall variation in the product.

In situations where the value defines the product and the user experience, there is much less room to maneuver for new entrants in the market. The reason is because they, like everyone else, are constrained by the value that is agreed upon by the community, usually in the form of regulations.

When Theranos comes in and claims that it’s going to dramatically improve the user experience of blood testing, that’s great, but they must be constrained by the value that society demands, which is a certain precision and accuracy in its testing results. Companies in the online education space are welcome to disrupt things by providing a better user experience. Online offerings in fact do this by allowing students to take classes according to their own schedule, wherever they may live in the world. But we still demand that the students learn an agreed-upon set of facts, skills, or lessons.

New companies will often argue that the things that we currently value are outdated or no longer valuable. Their incentive is to change the value required so that there is more room for new companies to enter the space. This is a good thing, but it’s important to realize that this cannot happen solely through changes in the product. Innovative features of a product may help us to understand that we should be valuing different things, but ultimately the change in what we preceive as value occurs independently of any given product.

When I see new companies enter the education, medicine, or news areas, I always hesitate a bit because I want some assurance that they will still provide the value that we have come to expect. In addition, with these particular areas, there is a genuine sense that failing to deliver on what we value could cause serious harm to individuals. However, I think the discussion that is provoked by new companies entering the space is always welcome because we need to constantly re-evaluate what we value and whether it matches the needs of our time.

An example that isn't that artificial or intelligent

Editor’s note: This is the second chapter of a book I’m working on called Demystifying Artificial Intelligence. The goal of the book is to demystify what modern AI is and does for a general audience. So something to smooth the transition between AI fiction and highly mathematical descriptions of deep learning. I’m developing the book over time - so if you buy the book on Leanpub know that there are only two chapters in there so far, but I’ll be adding more over the next few weeks and you get free updates. The cover of the book was inspired by this amazing tweet by Twitter user @notajf. Feedback is welcome and encouraged!

“I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying.” Oscar Wilde

As we have described it artificial intelligence applications consist of three things:

  1. A large collection of data examples
  2. An algorithm for learning a model from that training set.
  3. An interface with the world.

In the following chapters we will go into each of these components in much more detail, but lets start with a a couple of very simple examples to make sure that the components of an AI are clear. We will start with a completely artificial example and then move to more complicated examples.

Building an album

Lets start with a very simple hypothetical example that can be understood even if you don’t have a technical background. We can also use this example to define some of the terms we will be discussing later in the book.

In our simple example the goal is to make an album of photos for a friend. For example, suppose I want to take the photos in my photobook and find all the ones that include pictures of myself and my son Dex for his grandmother.

The author's drawing of the author's phone album. Don't make fun, he's
a data scientist, not an artist

If you are anything like the author of this book, then you probably have a very large number of pictures of your family on your phone. So the first step in making the photo alubm would be to stort through all of my pictures and pick out the ones that should be part of the album.

This is a typical example of the type of thing we might want to train a computer to do in an artificial intelligence application. Each of the components of an AI application is there:

  1. The data: all of the pictures on the author’s phone (a big training set!)
  2. The algorithm: finding pictures of me and my son Dex
  3. The interface: the album to give to Dex’s grandmother.

One way to solve this problem is for me to sort through the pictures one by one and decide whether they should be in the album or not, then assemble them together, and then put them into the album. If I did it like this then I myself would be the AI! That wouldn’t be very artificial though…imagine we instead wanted to teach a computer to make this album..

But what does it mean to “teach” a computer to do something?

The terms “machine learning” and “artificial intelligence” invoke the idea of teaching computers in the same way that we teach children. This was a deliberate choice to make the analogy - both because in some ways it is appropriate and because it is useful for explaining complicated concepts to people with limited backgrounds. To teach a child to find pictures of the author and his son, you would show her lots of examples of that type of picture and maybe some examples of the author with other kids who were not his son. You’d repeat to the child that the pictures of the author and his son were the kinds you wanted and the others weren’t. Eventually she would retain that information and if you gave her a new picture she could tell you whether it was the right kind or not.

To teach a machine to perform the same kind of recognition you go through a similar process. You “show” the machine many pictures labeled as either the ones you want or not. You repeat this process until the machine “retains” the information and can correctly label a new photo. Getting the machine to “retain” this information is a matter of getting the machine to create a set of step by step instructions it can apply to go from the image to the label that you want.

The data

The images are what people in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning call “raw data” (Leek, n.d.). The categories of pictures (a picture of the author and his son or a picture of something else) are called the “labels” or “outcomes”. If the computer gets to see the labels when it is learning then it is called “supervised learning” (Wikipedia contributors 2016) and when the computer doesn’t get to see the labels it is called “unsupervised learning” (Wikipedia contributors 2017a).

Going back to our analogy with the child, supervised learning would be teaching the child to recognize pictures of the author and his son together. Unsupervised learning would be giving the child a pile of pictures and asking them to sort them into groups. They might sort them by color or subject or location - not necessarily into categories that you care about. But probably one of the categories they would make would be pictures of people - so she would have found some potentially useful information even if it wasn’t exactly what you wanted. One whole field of artificial intelligence is figuring out how to use the information learned in this “unsupervised” setting and using it for supervised tasks - this is sometimes called “transfer learning” (Raina et al. 2007) by people in the field since you are transferring information from one task to another.

Returning to the task of “teaching” a computer to retain information about what kind of pictures you want we run into a problem - computers don’t know what pictures are! They also don’t know what audio clips, text files, videos, or any other kind of information is. At least not directly. They don’t have eyes, ears, and other senses along with a brain designed to decode the information from these senses.

So what can a computer understand? A good rule of thumb is that a computer works best with numbers. If you want a computer to sort pictures into an album for you, the first thing you need to do is to find a way to turn all of the information you want to “show” the computer into numbers. In the case of sorting pictures into albums - a supervised learning problem - we need to turn the labels and the images into numbers the computer can use.

Label each picture as a one or a zero depending on whether it is the
kind of picture you want in the album

One way to do that would be for you to do it for the computer. You could take every picture on your phone and label it with a 1 if it was a picture of the author and his son and a 0 if not. Then you would have a set of 1’s and 0’s corresponding to all of the pictures. This takes some thing the computer can’t understand (the picture) and turns it into something the computer can understand (the label).

This process would turn the labels into something a computer could understand, it still isn’t something we could teach a computer to do. The computer can’t actually “look” at the image and doesn’t know who the author or his son are. So we need to figure out a way to turn the images into numbers for the computer to use to generate those labels directly.

This is a little more complicated but you could still do it for the computer. Let’s suppose that the author and his son always wear matching blue shirts when they spend time together. Then you could go through and look at each image and decide what fraction of the image is blue. So each picture would get a number ranging from zero to one like 0.30 if the picture was 30% blue and 0.53 if it was 53% blue.

Calculate the fraction of each image that is the color blue as a
"feature" of the image that is numeric

The fraction of the picture that is blue is called a “feature” and the process of creating that feature is called “feature engineering” (Wikipedia contributors 2017b). Until very recently feature engineering of text, audio, or video files was best performed by an expert human. In later chapters we will discuss how one of the most exciting parts about AI application is that it is now possible to have computers perform feature engineering for you.

The algorithm

Now that we have converted the images to numbers and the labels to numbers, we can talk about how to “teach” a computer to label the pictures. A good rule of thumb when thinking about algorithms is that a computer can’t “do” anything without being told very explicitly what to do. It needs a step by step set of instructions. The instructions should start with a calculation on the numbers for the image and should end with a prediction of what label to apply to that image. The image (converted to numbers) is the “input” and the label (also a number) is the “output”. You may have heard the phrase:

“Garbage in, garbage out”

What this phrase means is if the inputs (the images) are bad - say they are all very dark or hard to see. Then the output of the algorithm will also be bad - the predictions won’t be very good.

A machine learning “algorithm” can be thought of as a set of instructions with some of the parts left blank - sort of like mad-libs. One example of a really simple algorithm for sorting pictures into the album would be:

  1. Calculate the fraction of blue in the image.
  2. If the fraction of blue is above X label it 1
  3. If the fraction of blue is less than X label it 0
  4. Put all of the images labeled 1 in the album

The machine “learns” by using the examples to fill in the blanks in the instructions. In the case of our really simple algorithm we need to figure out what fraction of blue to use (X) for labeling the picture.

To figure out a guess for X we need to decide what we want the algorithm to do. If we set X to be too low then all of the images will be labeled with a 1 and put into the album. If we set X to be too high then all of the images will be labeled 0 and none will appear in the album. In between there is some grey area - do we care if we accidentally get some pictures of the ocean or the sky with our algorithm?

But the number of images in the album isn’t even the thing we really care about. What we might care about is making sure that the album is mostly pictures of the author and his son. In the field of AI they usually turn this statement around - we want to make sure the album has a very small fraction of pictures that are not of the author and his son. This fraction - the fraction that are incorrectly placed in the album is called the “loss”. You can think about it like a game where the computer loses a point every time it puts the wrong kind of picture into the album.

Using our loss (how many pictures we incorrectly placed in the album) we can now use the data we have created (the numbers for the labels and the images) to fill in the blanks in our mad-lib algorithm (picking the cutoff on the amount of blue). We have a large number of pictures where we know what fraction of each picture is blue and whether it is a picture of the author and his son or not. We can try each possible X and calculate the fraction of pictures in the album that are incorrectly placed into the album (the loss) and find the X that produces the smallest fraction.

Suppose that the value of X that gives the smallest faction of wrong pictures in the album is 30. Then our “learned” model would be:

  1. Calculate the fraction of blue in the image
  2. If the fraction of blue is above 0.1 label it 1
  3. If the fraction of blue is less than 0.1 label it 0
  4. Put all of the images labeled 1 in the album

The interface

The last part of an AI application is the interface. In this case, the interface would be the way that we share the pictures with Dex’s grandmother. For example we could imagine uploading the pictures to Shutterfly and having the album delivered to Dex’s grandmother.

Putting this all together we could imagine an application using our trained AI. The author uploads his unlabeled photos. The photos are then passed to the computer program which calculates the fraction of the image that is blue, then applies a label according to the algorithm we learned, then takes all the images predicted to be of the author and his son and sends them off to be a Shutterfly album mailed to the authors’ mother.

Whoa that computer is smart - from the author's picture to grandma's
hands!

If the algorithm was good, then from the perspective of the author the website would look “intelligent”. I just uploaded pictures and it created an album for me with the pictures that I wanted. But the steps in the process were very simple and understandable behind the scenes.

References

Leek, Jeffrey. n.d. “The Elements of Data Analytic Style.” {https://leanpub.com/datastyle}.

Raina, Rajat, Alexis Battle, Honglak Lee, Benjamin Packer, and Andrew Y Ng. 2007. “Self-Taught Learning: Transfer Learning from Unlabeled Data.” In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Machine Learning, 759–66. ICML ’07. New York, NY, USA: ACM.

Wikipedia contributors. 2016. “Supervised Learning.” https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Supervised_learning&oldid=752493505.

———. 2017a. “Unsupervised Learning.” https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Unsupervised_learning&oldid=760556815.

———. 2017b. “Feature Engineering.” https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Feature_engineering&oldid=760758719.

What is artificial intelligence? A three part definition

Editor’s note: This is the first chapter of a book I’m working on called Demystifying Artificial Intelligence. The goal of the book is to demystify what modern AI is and does for a general audience. So something to smooth the transition between AI fiction and highly mathematical descriptions of deep learning. I’m developing the book over time - so if you buy the book on Leanpub know that there is only one chaper in there so far, but I’ll be adding more over the next few weeks and you get free updates. The cover of the book was inspired by this amazing tweet by Twitter user @notajf. Feedback is welcome and encouraged!

What is artificial intelligence?

“If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck but it needs batteries, you probably have the wrong abstraction” Derick Bailey

This book is about artificial intelligence. The term “artificial intelligence” or “AI” has a long and convoluted history (Cohen and Feigenbaum 2014). It has been used by philosophers, statisticians, machine learning experts, mathematicians, and the general public. This historical context means that when people say artificial intelligence the term is loaded with one of many potential different meanings.

Humanoid robots

Before we can demystify artificial intelligence it is helpful to have some context for what the word means. When asked about artificial intelligence, most people’s imagination leaps immediately to images of robots that can act like and interact with humans. Near-human robots have long been a source of fascination by humans have appeared in cartoons like the Jetsons and science fiction like Star Wars. More recently, subtler forms of near-human robots with artificial intelligence have played roles in movies like Her and Ex machina.

People usually think of artificial intelligence as a human-like robot
performing all the tasks that a person could.

The type of artificial intelligence that can think and act like a human is something that experts call artificial general intelligence (Wikipedia contributors 2017a).

is the intelligence of a machine that could successfully perform any intellectual task that a human being can

There is an understandable fascination and fear associated with robots, created by humans, but evolving and thinking independently. While this is a major area of ressearch (Laird, Newell, and Rosenbloom 1987) and of course the center of most people’s attention when it comes to AI, there is no near term possibility of this type of intelligence (Urban, n.d.). There are a number of barriers to human-mimicking AI from difficulty with robotics (Couden 2015) to needed speedups in computational power (Langford, n.d.).

One of the key barriers is that most current forms of the computer models behind AI are trained to do one thing really well, but can not be applied beyond that narrow task. There are extremely effective artificial intelligence applications for translating between languages (Wu et al. 2016), for recognizing faces in images (Taigman et al. 2014), and even for driving cars (Santana and Hotz 2016).

But none of these technologies are generalizable across the range of tasks that most adult humans can accomplish. For example, the AI application for recognizing faces in images can not be directly applied to drive cars and the translation application couldn’t recognize a single image. While some of the internal technology used in the applications is the same, the final version of the applications can’t be transferred. This means that when we talk about artificial intelligence we are not talking about a general purpose humanoid replacement. Currently we are talking about technologies that can typically accomplish one or two specific tasks that a human could accomplish.

Cognitive tasks

While modern AI applications couldn’t do everything that an adult could do (Baciu and Baciu 2016), they can perform individual tasks nearly as well as a human. There is a second commonly used definition of artificial intelligence that is considerably more narrow (Wikipedia contributors 2017b)

… the term “artificial intelligence” is applied when a machine mimics “cognitive” functions that humans associate with other human minds, such as “learning” and “problem solving”.

This definition encompasses applications like machine translation and facial recognition. They are “cognitive” functions that are generally usually only performed by humans. A difficulty with this definition is that it is relative. People refer to machines that can do tasks that we thought humans could only do as artificial intelligence. But over time, as we become used to machines performing a particular task it is no longer surprising and we stop calling it artificial intelligence. John McCarthy, one of the leading early figures in artificial intelligence said (Vardi 2012):

As soon as it works, no one calls it AI anymore…

As an example, when you send a letter in the mail, there is a machine that scans the writing on the letter. A computer then “reads” the characters on the front of the letter. The computer reads the characters in several steps - the color of each pixel in the picture of the letter is stored in a data set on the computer. Then the computer uses an algorithm that has been built using thousands or millions of other letters to take the pixel data and turn it into predictions of the characters in the image. Then the characters are identified as addresses, names, zipcodes, and other relevant pieces of information. Those are then stored in the computer as text which can be used for sorting the mail.

This task used to be considered “artificial intelligence” (Pavlidis, n.d.). It was surprising that a computer could perform the tasks of recognizing characters and addresses just based on a picture of the letter. This task is now called “optical character recognition” (Wikipedia contributors 2016). Many tutorials on the algorithms behind machine learning begin with this relatively simple task (Google Tensorflow Team, n.d.). Optical character recognition is now used in a wide range of applications including in Google’s effort to digitize millions of books (Darnton 2009).

Since this type of algorithm has become so common it is no longer called “artificial intelligence”. This transition happened becasue we no longer think it is surprising that computers can do this task - so it is no longer considered intelligent. This process has played out with a number of other technologies. Initially it is thought that only a human can do a particular cognitive task. As computers become increasingly proficient at that task they are called artificially intelligent. Finally, when that task is performed almost exclusively by computers it is no longer considered “intelligent” and the boundary moves.

Timeline of tasks we were surprised that computers could do as well as
humans.

Over the last two decades tasks from optical character recognition, to facial recognition in images, to playing chess have started as artificially intelligent applications. At the time of this writing there are a number of technologies that are currently on the boundary between doable only by a human and doable by a computer. These are the tasks that are considered AI when you read about the term in the media. Examples of tasks that are currently considered “artificial intelligence” include:

  • Computers that can drive cars
  • Computers that can identify human faces from pictures
  • Computers that can translate text from one language to another
  • Computers that can label pictures with text descriptions

Just as it used to be with optical character recognition, self-driving cars and facial recognition are tasks that still surprise us when performed by a computer. So we still call them artificially intelligent. Eventually, many or most of these tasks will be performed nearly exclusively by computers and we will no longer think of them as components of computer “intelligence”. To go a little further we can think about any task that is repetitive and performed by humans. For example, picking out music that you like or helping someone buy something at a store. An AI can eventually be built to do those tasks provided that: (a) there is a way of measuring and storing information about the tasks and (b) there is technology in place to perform the task if given a set of computer instructions.

The more narrow definition of AI is used colloquially in the news to refer to new applications of computers to perform tasks previously thought impossible. It is important to know both the definition of AI used by the general public and the more narrow and relative definition used to describe modern applications of AI by companies like Google and Facebook. But neither of these definitions is satisfactory to help demystify the current state of artificial intelligence applications.

A three part definition

The first definition describes a technology that we are not currently faced with - fully functional general purpose artificial intelligence. The second definition suffers from the fact that it is relative to the expectations of people discussing applications. For this book, we need a definition that is concrete, specific, and doesn’t change with societal expectations.

We will consider specific examples of human-like tasks that computers can perform. So we will use the definition that artificial intelligence requires the following components:

  1. The data set : A of data examples that can be used to train a statistical or machine learning model to make predictions.
  2. The algorithm : An algorithm that can be trained based on the data examples to take a new example and execute a human-like task.
  3. The interface : An interface for the trained algorithm to receive a data input and execute the human like task in the real world.

This definition encompases optical character recognition and all the more modern examples like self driving cars. It is also intentionally broad, covering even examples where the data set is not large or the algorithm is not complicated. We will use our definition to break down modern artificial intelligence applications into their constituitive parts and make it clear how the computer represents knowledge learned from data examples and then applies that knowledge.

As one example, consider Amazon Echo and Alexa - an application currently considered to be artificially intelligent (Nuñez, n.d.). This combination meets our definition of artificially intelligent since each of the components is in place.

  1. The data set : The large set of data examples consist of all the recordings that Amazon has collected of people talking to their Amazon devices.
  2. The machine learning algorithm : The Alexa voice service (Alexa Developers 2016) is a machine learning algorithm trained using the previous recordings of people talking to Amazon devices.
  3. The interface : The interface is the Amazon Echo (Amazon Inc 2016) a speaker that can record humans talking to it and respond with information or music.

The three parts of an artificial intelligence illustrated with Amazon
Echo and Alexa

When we break down artificial intelligence into these steps it makes it clearer why there has been such a sudden explosion of interest in artificial intelligence over the last several years.

First, the cost of data storage and collection has gone down steadily (Irizarry, n.d.) but dramatically (Quigley, n.d.) over the last several years. As the costs have come down, it is increasingly feasible for companies, governments, and even individuals to store large collections of data (Component 1 - The Data). To take advantage of these huge collections of data requires incredibly flexible statistical or machine learning algorithms that can capture most of the patterns in the data and re-use them for prediction. The most common type of algorithms used in modern artificial intelligence are something called “deep neural networks”. These algorithms are so flexible they capture nearly all of the important structure in the data. They can only be trained well if huge data sets exist and computers are fast enough. Continual increases in computing speed and power over the last several decades now make it possible to apply these models to use collections of data (Component 2 - The Algorithm).

Finally, the most underappreciated component of the AI revolution does not have to do with data or machine learning. Rather it is the development of new interfaces that allow people to interact directly with machine learning models. For a number of years now, if you were an expert with statistical and machine learning software it has been possible to build highly accurate predictive models. But if you were a person without technical training it was not possible to directly interact with algorithms.

Or as statistical experts Diego Kuonen and Rafael Irizarry have put it:

The big in big data refers to importance, not size

It isn't about how much data you have, it is about how many people you
can get to use it.

The explosion of interfaces for regular, non-technical people to interact with machine learning is an underappreciated driver of the AI revolution of the last several years. Artificial intelligence can now power labeling friends on Facebook, parsing your speech to your personal assistant Siri or Google Assistant, or providing you with directions in your car, or when you talk to your Echo. More recently sensors and devices make it possible for the instructions created by a computer to steer and drive a car.

These interfaces now make it possible for hundreds of millions of people to directly interact with machine learning algorithms. These algorithms can range from exceedingly simple to mind bendingly complex. But the common result is that the interface allows the computer to perform a human-like action and makes it look like artificial intelligence to the person on the other side. This interface explosion only promises to accelerate as we are building sensors for both data input and behavior output in objects from phones to refrigerators to cars (Component 3 - The interface).

This definition of artificial intelligence in three components will allow us to demystify artificial intelligence applications from self driving cars to facial recognition. Our goal is to provide a high-level interface to the current conception of AI and how it can be applied to problems in real life. It will include discussion and references to the sophisticated models and data collection methods used by Facebook, Tesla, and other companies. However, the book does not assume a mathematical or computer science background and will attempt to explain these ideas in plain language. Of course, this means that some details will be glossed over, so we will attempt to point the interested reader toward more detailed resources throughout the book.

References

Alexa Developers. 2016. “Alexa Voice Service.” https://developer.amazon.com/alexa-voice-service.

Amazon Inc. 2016. “Amazon Echo.” https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Echo-Bluetooth-Speaker-with-WiFi-Alexa/dp/B00X4WHP5E.

Baciu, Assaf, and Assaf Baciu. 2016. “Artificial Intelligence Is More Artificial Than Intelligent.” Wired, 7~dec.

Cohen, Paul R, and Edward A Feigenbaum. 2014. The Handbook of Artificial Intelligence. Vol. 3. Butterworth-Heinemann. https://goo.gl/wg5rMk.

Couden, Craig. 2015. “Why It’s so Hard to Make Humanoid Robots | Make:” http://makezine.com/2015/06/15/hard-make-humanoid-robots/.

Darnton, Robert. 2009. Google & the Future of Books. na.

Google Tensorflow Team. n.d. “MNIST for ML Beginners | TensorFlow.” https://www.tensorflow.org/tutorials/mnist/beginners/.

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Got a data app idea? Apply to get it prototyped by the JHU DSL!

Get your app built

Last fall we ran the first iteration of a class at the Johns Hopkins Data Science Lab where we teach students to build data web-apps using Shiny, R, GoogleSheets and a number of other technologies. Our goals were to teach students to build data products, to reduce friction for students who want to build things with data, and to help people solve important data problems with web and SMS apps.

We are going to be running a second iteration of our program from March-June this year. We are looking for awesome projects for students to build that solve real world problems. We are particularly interested in projects that could have a positive impact on health but are open to any cool idea. We generally build apps that are useful for:

  • Data donation - if you have a group of people you would like to donate data to your project.
  • Data collection - if you would like to build an app for collecting data from people.
  • Data visualziation - if you have a data set and would like to have a web app for interacting with the data
  • Data interaction - if you have a statistical or machine learning model and you would like a web interface for it.

But we are interested in any consumer-facing data product that you might be interested in having built. We want you to submit your wildest, most interesting ideas and we’ll see if we can get them built for you.

We are hoping to solicit a large number of projects and then build as many as possible. The best part is that we will build the prototype for you for free! If you have an idea of something you’d like built please submit it to this Google form.

Students in the class will select projects they are interested in during early March. We will let you know if your idea was selected for the program by mid-March. If you aren’t selected you will have the opportunity to roll your submission over to our next round of prototyping.

I’ll be writing a separate post targeted at students, but if you are interested in being a data app prototyper, sign up here.

Interview with Al Sommer - Effort Report Episode 23

My colleage Elizabeth Matsui and I had a great opportunity to talk with Al Sommer on the latest episode of our podcast The Effort Report. Al is the former Dean of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and is Professor of Epidemiology and International Health at the School. He is (among other things) world reknown for his pioneering research in vitamin A deficiency and mortality in children.

Al had some good bits of advice for academics and being successful in academia.

What you are excited about and interested in at the moment, you’re much more likely to be succesful at—because you’re excited about it! So you’re going to get up at 2 in the morning and think about it, you’re going to be putting things together in ways that nobody else has put things together. And guess what? When you do that you’re more succesful [and] you actual end up getting academic promotions.

On the slow rate of progress:

It took ten years, after we had seven randomized trials already to show that you get this 1/3 reduction in child mortality by giving them two cents worth of vitamin A twice a year. It took ten years to convince the child survival Nawabs of the world, and there are still some that don’t believe it.

On working overseas:

It used to be true [that] it’s a lot easier to work overseas than it is to work here because the experts come from somewhere else. You’re never an expert in your own home.

You can listen to the entire episode here: