538 election forecasts made simple

Nate Silver does a great job of explaining his forecast model to laypeople. However, as a statistician I’ve always wanted to know more details.¬†After preparing a “predict the midterm elections“¬†homework for my data science class I have a better idea of what is going on.

Here is my best attempt at explaining the ideas of 538 using formulas and data. And here is the R markdown.




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