Prediction contest


I have been seeing this paper all over Twitter/the blogosphere. It’s a sexy idea: can you predict how “high-impact” a scientist will be in the future. It is also a pretty flawed data analysis…so this weeks prediction contest is to identify why the statistics in this paper are so flawed. In my first pass read I noticed about 5 major flaws.

Editor’s note: I posted the criticisms and the authors respond here: